Thailand Defence & Security Report Q3 2010 Problems
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s victory in winning the support of lawmakers in a ‘no-confidence’ vote on June 1 2010 strengthens BMI’s view that a revisit of violent protests in Bangkok will be unlikely, at least in the short term.
However, we note that the resolution of Thailand’s structural problems in income inequality and a reconciliation of its divided population will be key to the country’s long-term outlook. On this front, we are sceptical whether these structural problems can be resolved anytime soon. Indeed, Thailand currently scores a relatively weak 65.4 for our short-term political risk rating, highlighting our concerns in the particular components of security and social stability.
While the domestic situation obviously dominates, at the same time the border dispute with Cambodia continues to simmer. In mid-February, Phnom Penh said it might seek intervention of International Court of Justice or the UN Security Council to settle the disagreement over land near Preah Vihear temple. The dispute is already threatening to spread to a wider ASEAN theatre.
There is also tension in the southern part of the country where more than 3,500 people have been killed in almost daily violence since January 2004. Insurgencies in neighbouring Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are constant security concerns. Consequently, Thailand’s terrorism risk rating remains at a low 32.5. The industrial base is essentially commercial and defence contract works form only a part (and sometimes a small part) of the revenues for companies involved in Thailand’s defence sector.
In economic news, GDP surged 5.8% y-o-y in Q409 snapping four quarters of negative growth and confirming a full-year contraction of 2.5%. We are now forecasting GDP growth of 3.6% for 2010 but acknowledge this growth rate may be exceeded. There are good indications that consumer spending is picking up and this recovery trend can be sustained over the coming quarters. Low interest rates will be maintained by the Bank of Thailand as the economy is still not on a firm footing and this will encourage consumers to take on more debt.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Thailand Security SWOT
- Thailand Defence Industry SWOT
- Thailand Political SWOT
- Thailand Economic SWOT
- Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- United States: Major Tests For Obama In 2010
- Table: Election Timetable, 2010
- Western Europe: Fiscal Austerity Will Be Unpopular
- Central And Eastern Europe: New Governments, Old Problems
- Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
- Africa: The Election Conundrum
- Asia: Broadly Stable, But ‘Rogues’ Need Vigilance
- Latin America: Political Risks Contained, But Watch Cartels
- Wild Cards To Watch
South East Asia Security Overview
- South East Asia In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia
- Piracy In The Malacca Strait
- The South China Sea/Spratly Islands
- Other Regional Threats
- Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia
- The Outlook For South East Asia
Indian Ocean: The Growing Struggle For Dominance
- The Geopolitical Significance Of The Indian Ocean
- China: Seeking A ‘String Of Pearls’
- Some Disclaimers On The ‘String Of Pearls’
- India: Moving To Counter China
- United States: A Powerful Force And A Key Balancer
- Table: Indian Ocean Powers
- The Other Players, Present And Future
- Passive Players: The East African Coast
- Key Risks To Minor Players
- Conclusion: No Decisive Hegemon Likely
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI’s Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Thailand’s Security Risk
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Southern Thai Muslim Insurgency
- BRN-K
- GMIP/PULO
- Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents
- Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations
- Drugs Trade
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ’000 personnel)
- International Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Thailand’s Military Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (’000 personnel unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Thailand’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: Thailand – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Profiles
- Loxley
- Minebea
- Thai-Italian Interarms Company
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)